Ontario Releases Third Quarter Finances 2023-24
On February 12th, the government released Ontario’s Third Quarter Finances 2023-2024.
Despite high interest rates and unpredictable consumer inflation, Ontario’s economy continues to grow.
Highlights:
- Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged in the third quarter (July, August and September) of 2023, after increasing 0.4 per cent in the second quarter.
- Since the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (also referred to as the Fall Economic Statement, or FES), estimated Ontario real and nominal GDP growth in 2023 has been revised upwards, while the private-sector average projection for real and nominal GDP growth in 2024 has been revised modestly downwards.
- As of the 2023–24 Third Quarter Finances, the province’s 2023–24 deficit is projected to be $4.5 billion — an improvement of $1.1 billion compared to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. The improvement to the deficit is primarily due to increased revenue and lower interest on debt expense. The 2023 Budget, published in March 2023, projected a deficit of $1.3 billion.
- Revenues in 2023–24 are projected to be $202.7 billion, $1.6 billion lower than forecast in the 2023 Budget and $0.9 billion higher than expected in the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, mainly reflecting stronger-than-expected Broader Public Sector revenues, slightly higher taxation revenue and transfers from the Government of Canada.
- Overall program expense in 2023–24 is projected to be $193.4 billion, $2.8 billion higher than forecast in the 2023 Budget and $0.4 billion higher than forecast in the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. New commitments announced since the release of the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Revieware primarily funded through third-party revenues, lower-than-expected spending and existing contingencies within the fiscal plan.